Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

If Vascepa did $10 Billion in average sales for the next 10 years(then generics) that would be $100 billion in revenue, even the best case scenario is $80 billion in profit, without factoring in any costs other than production and assuming a very high profit on production. Assuming BP has a sales force in place, there expense increase is commissions, some advertising, R&D related etc... even in most positive scenario for BP it's $70 billion to bottom line.

Now, Amarin will not have ability to generate inventory for $10 billion in 2020 and unlikely in 2021, so estimate $2 and $5 billion for those 2 years so now there are 8 years left needing 11.6 Billion average per year just to reach $100 billion.

I'm not even factoring in a discount of the $70 billion as it is future dollars or what they could make with the BO money if they try to get a return with it elsewhere.

Why would BP pay $75 billion and then go to shareholders and say it is a steal when they don't even think they will get the investment back within 10 years? I would guess strongly that neither BP nor Amarin has $100 billion sales in the expected sales models which makes it even more unlikely.

I think $20B is minimum to get a deal and $40B is maximum for a deal. You can't run numbers that make any sense at numbers higher than that and make a profit down the line based on what these companies will be modeling for peak sales.