Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

I don’t see that they went to this conference any other year but last year so it’s not a regular thing.

M&A I disagree on the logic, unless due diligence gives high chance of issues, unlikey BP will be afraid of either of those things, no way they wait until 2021, they have a few weeks to go through due diligence on sNDA filed and then when FDA letter comes with expedited timeline we will see if Amarin is going to GIA or BO, we should have that resolved before Adcom one way or the other. If Amarin goes to Adcom without putting in place the ramp up then they are poor managers or are not GIA.

If there is no BO by FDA expanded label date the risk a BO price dropping each year forward is relatively high. Baker Brothers have large input in this, like all investors of that ilk it is a complete risk-reward analysis. For BP a 1 drug company with known generic date is more valuable to them the sooner they take control.

So both sides have large incentive to do a deal this year. Amarin will be at peak BO value, unless you believe Amarin can execute at a level that 5 billion plus sales really are reached in 2021. Not likely based on history, but then again it’s a unique drug, even though it took statins years after study proving they worked to ramp up, so who knows, which I think is the point, too much risk they will ramp too slowly.