S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) Monthly Summary Analysis »» New Pattern Forming
By: Marty Armstrong | April 6, 2019

WE SEE THE ANALYTICAL SITUATION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 5, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 793869 and is trading up about 19% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. At present, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 785011.


At present, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place here in 2018 and we have up to now this year remained trading within last year's range in a consolidating pattern. So far we have seen a trading range of 794045 for a high and 645713 for the low. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have had a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The last high was made during 2018. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 857235 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 565602 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come May in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 785011 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 785011 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 809233 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 813330 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 608195 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 3 months. The previous low of 619017 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 722514 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during August 2018 on the Monthly level at 813330 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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