Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[amarinbullfromchicago]

Some things I heard from friends at Biotech funds and larger banks-

1. Not confident about patents. Simple, but seen as a big risk for some bigger PMs

2. Concerned that amarin is fairly well known but growth hasn’t been massive so far. Yes we’ve been growing 3% a week, but there was never a 500 or 1000% month. We’re so far from our number of 2-10mil scripts, I think we need to hit 250k-500k before people start to see the 10m upside in scripts. And once a year is up, an argument is to be made that everyone has seen their docs and scripts will slow down. I believe we have many catalysts coming to keep our 10m+ very possible, but for now we’re only an infinitesimal fraction of that, and not even beating GL (for stock price, at a certain point sales matter more than science).

3. People see little rush to enter, now that we have filed sNDA. They think they have until September (assuming priority) or even January to buy.

I’ve thrown all the arguments against these points, but I just thought I’d post this to get some convos going. Moreover, there’s always an aversion to “too good to be true” in terms of investing for a lot of more conservative firms.

I also think epinova being proven inferior to V will help more than the board thinks, and “crush” one of our big “competitors” from entering the market. It will also increase our BO premium for a while, as AZN will look pretty dumb and I’m sure try to do what they can to make up for the crappy trial for a laxative