Top ten reasons to own WAVX:
#10
You are in on a “ground floor” investment:
This is both a plus for investing in Wave, and one of the biggest crosses to bear, as well. While it is likely that we early investors have purchased our shares at a considerable discount to what those who buy in two years will pay, we also are the ones who must bear the worries, risk and volatility of Wave’s transit through these early, developmental days.
#9
Competition, or lack thereof:
Wave is still the only software maker who can leverage networks of all manufactured TPMs.(For verification of this, see reason number one) GoKite is right to say that for now, other security approaches may take money off the table, but, I think that in the future if TPMs are widely acknowledged the best solution to protect your data and passwords, Wave will be the one claiming most of the money. HP and Infineon only get in the way of one small part of what Wave seeks to accomplish-management of TPM use on an individual computer. Wave still has no competition at what they really seek to do long term-provide the software that will allow companies to leverage networks of TPMs to provide trusted services of numerous varieties. While HP/Infineon block Wave from some computers at the 50 cent ESC lite level, Wave can still sell Esc full version for 20 to 50 dollars to any computer with a TPM, including HP and Infineon. Not a major issue in the long run IMO.
#8
Wave’s industry connections:
This story is not just Wave versus the world. Wave is a member of or otherwise affiliated with a number of groups of companies who are pushing trusted computing (FIXS, the TCG, etc.) These companies will want the TCG approach to succeed, either for their own profits, or for the relief of worries about protecting data at rest, identity theft and the like that the TCG approach will give. I also think that these member companies will be an excellent pool of prospective customers for Wave to sell into soon.
#7
The TCG/TPM approach has been validated at the chip, OEM and individual TPM management software level:
TPMs will soon be in all computers. Cell phones are close behind. Is there any more doubt as to the ubiquity of TPMs? Think of all the companies that have invested money in the TPM approach. They are all telling you with their checkbooks that this is an important new development. Many millions have been invested in TPM development/deployment by the likes of Dell, Intel, Winbond, Seagate, Microsoft, HP, Infineon, and too many others to list completely. They are all shouting at the top of their lungs “TPMs ARE HERE!” It is the time that Wave has been waiting for. Now, the more TPMs are used, the more keys get generated, and the more need there is for Wave.
#6
NTT
The largest integrator in Japan is leveraging Wave’s software in an attempt to bring to fruition some or all of the TPMs promise of trustworthy computing. To see a technologically advanced nation like Japan turn Wave’s direction is heartening. (The 100 million dollars that they could send our way over the next few years is also, er, heartening.)
#5
We are a key part of an emerging paradigm:
How many investments can say that? And how many can say that the use of their key component, TPMs, reaches across the spectrum of technology involving data. Any electronic data that is at risk of being hacked or stolen is a candidate for TPM hardened protection. The potential market is huge, and numerous companies have been hit by data at rest losses recently, so they should be motivated to look for a solution, if only for protection from lawsuits.
#4
The U. S. Department of Defense is pushing TPMs.
Use of all of those TPMs will lead to the need to manage networks for attestation and key management/ migration. Wave is the only company to allow the DoD to manage all of those keys across multiple types of TPM platforms. The Army validated this when they turned to Wave to consult on their apparent recent trials of the technology. Should the DoD adopt Wave, that will serve to introduce Wave into the whole spectrum of DoD contractors. The DoD will certainly demand the same level of data protection for sensitive projects awarded to contractors. That being said, getting the government to do anything is like trying to get cats to march in a parade. This one might take a while. But, once you are in, Cha-Ching! The DoD might force Wave to a substantial discount price, but Wave should do it ASAP so that they can get busy selling to DoD contractors. If the DoD mandates TPM protection by their contractors, it will be Wave in the drivers seat as they negotiate with contractors.
#3
Seagate and Dell are the two major players pulling Wave’s cart:
A pretty good pair of horses to hitch your wagon to, eh? Dell already is pushing Wave’s technology, and once the deployment happens for Seagate’s FDE, it will put Wave in front of millions more customers who WILL be using the TPM on their machine.
#2
The Seagate deal:
Seagate is critical to Wave, but not for the money that they will bring Wave through bundling on the FDE drive. The real value of the Seagate drive to Wave is that all of those FDE drives will be generating keys that will need managing. Hopefully, after a few issues with employees losing/forgetting logins, the need for key management will be apparent to all. This is the point at which Wave is the only solution, and they should be able to cash in, big time. The bundling revs will help in the short term, but the big tamale is the need for Wave’s server applications that the Seagate drives should help create. Some worry that Seagate may be able to twist Wave’s arm to lower the bundling fee per individual drive. I say, the sooner that the FDE drives get out there, the better for Wave, even if that means our arm is a little twisted over bundling. (UNCLE! Just sell them already!)
The Seagate drive will also move TPMs from the realm of the Weitek coprocessor (ala DigSpace-Dig used the Weitek as a possible analogy to the TPM. The coprocessor got added to many computers, but never really used.) The Seagate drive WILL use the TPM, and thus introduce millions to the TPM, TCG concepts and to Wave through the TDM. (Tipping point for Wave follows...)
#1
So far, all new products that are using/leveraging combinations of TPMs from multiple manufacturers are using Wave’s software. This confirms Wave’s place at the center of future trusted computing applications. All roads to the use of TPM networks still go through Wave, and we have seen no evidence of this changing one bit. Seagate, Juniper, and Nortel are early to the party. Lets hope they are the first of many.
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I am not trying to be a cheerleader here, but all of the tempest over the 3Q CC got me thinking. I realized that I just wasn’t as bothered by the call as others seemed to be, and began thinking about why. This list is the result of those musings. As far as I am concerned, the 3Q numbers did not change anything of importance related to Wave. All they did was disappoint those who had become invested in either their own, or someone else’s “projections” of what Wave should make in 3Q.
IMO, those who make projections should be appreciated for the time that they take to provide us with an educated guess about Wave’s prospects. Their guesses are interesting, but they should also be taken with a rather large grain of salt. How many projections have crashed and burned over the years? Everyone has failed at accurately predicting both the roll out of trusted computing, and the ramp of revenues to Wave. The list of those failing includes OEMs, service providers, SKS, and assorted board personalities. I would ask those who were disappointed at the failure of the projections; Why are you surprised? The only person to come close the last couple of quarters is DigSpace. Hats off to Dig, (and also please notice that Dig is calling for 2-4 million in Q4.)
Its a new market, with roll out just now occuring, and every little delay or issue will be magnified. We are bound to see other issues cause a few bumps in the road for Wave, as well. The key is to reach break even so small problems are not as critical, and then make steady progress at converting companies from using TPMs only on individual computers to forming trusted networks.
In the meantime, please note that the first real product using TPMs that is guaranteed to both sell and be used in large numbers is the Seagate drive. Throughout 2007, FDE drives will be permeating the market. Let’s hope that the initial bundling revs put us over breakeven in Q2/Q3, and that Wave can capitalize on those new TPM users.
AI
