Cherry Tree:
From the explanation LP has given, the data collection in and of itself is a enormous task. And as of the ASM, it does not sound as though it is completed. Conducting parallel tasks appears to mainly involve the data collection process across 82 domestic and international sites. As of the ASM, it appears that the SAP was then not developed and that this task, too, is enormous involving multiple parties. And...it involves 4 RAs with the distinct possibility that there will be back and forth on the submitted SAPs. The timing of the approvals is then out of NWBO's control.
Thus, the sentiment that it would be "nice" to announce top line at ASCO is not really very encouraging at all when considering LP's quoted statement. From the explanation, it appears that LP is trying to temper expectations concerning timing of top line expectations and while not ruling ASCO entirely out and giving some possible hope, LP is letting shareholders down gently, and I think transparently, at the ASM. She has an "I told you so" defence if there is protracted delay.
IMHO, shareholders are being set up for disappointment. LP admits that the process involving 4 RAs is frustrating but by going that route it gives NWBO more chances to win. IMHO, the biggest chance to win is with the FDA. The other chances, IMHO, relatively pale in comparison. Leaving that thought aside and re-reading your quoted statement from LP, I am now convinced that ASCO is not only absolutely out for top line, but more than likely, we won't hear about top line until at least early 2020.
Right now, investor news expectations are focused upon top line. Other news involving DCVAX D and combo trials, etc., etc. won't move the share price needle; only top line results will do that. I doubt that the monies obtained through the sale of the Sawston property will last until the end of 2019. I think before then, NWBO will need to arrange for the sale of the remaining 17 acres and then be left with no real tangible assets unless, of course, the trial is a bang-on success. Next, in the mind of investors, is the return to toxic financing. A R/S certainly won't help.
Delays in announcing top line until much later in the year or in early 2020 will be met with strong and aggressive attacks despite the fact that the process LP described is understandably protracted to those relatively few investors immersed in the knowledge of the process. Frustrations will run high and FUD will run rampant and unbridled. Support by retail investors alone will not be powerful enough to overcome the negative sentiment engendered the longer it takes to reveal top line. Potential investors will likely hold off purchasing NWBO stock. This is the nature of market forces especially when it comes to NWBO.
The longer the perceived delay, the more the share price will suffer. If announcement of top line is delayed toward the end of 2019, say at least 9 months from now, then I would predict the share price will hit new lows, perhaps even high single digits. There would not be any other news strong enough to counter-act the slide in this case. Then, even in the case of stellar results, I doubt the share price would rise 10x from significantly lower levels and share price would likely be below a dollar anyway.
In such a scenario, what can DI accomplish? What news can he share if any? Why is IR even needed? Doesn't the quoted passage tell you all you need to know? Not very encouraging. JMHO.
AI
