Sentiment:
I hope you don't mind if I proffer some predictions on share price appreciation upon top line revelation and then approval.
1. If the primary/secondary endpoints are met plus miles stones and reasonably thick and diversified long tail( a best case scenario), I believe that share price will appreciate 5-6 times over the then share price. Let's assume that top line comes out at ASCO or shortly thereafter(with guidance not silence from NWBO). Let's further assume that the share price is about $0.30 just about where it is now. I think the share price could possibly approach $2.00 and would most likely settle somewhere between $1 and $2. The market will reckon a multiplier effect based upon the then prevailing price. That's how the market works in my experience. I think a 5 or 6 times multiplier is reasonable and upon approval by the FDA ( and other RAs but the most important is the FDA), I think the share price could rise to $5.00. I don't think the price would riseuch higher due to commercialization concerns, rate of market penetration, profitability, etc., all legitimate concerns. I also think a buy out could be offered at about the same level. I don't think big P would offer much more and I think that LP/LG would take such an offer. They are getting on in age and perhaps well realize that the commercialization challenge is a bit beyond them at their age. Otherwise, I think big P will let them go it alone and take their solitary chances. There will still be malevolent and powerful forces out there.
2. If topline announcement is delayed beyond ASCO, and in silence, I see the share price tanking and possibly declining to $0.15-$0.20. If the results are as in 1. above, I still see the price rise to
about a dollar or a bit more. Upon approval, the stock could possibly appreciate to between $3-4 per share.
3. If the primary/secondary endpoints are missed, the trial will have "technically" failed and the long tail good news essentially overwhelmed if not buried by an avalanche of accentuating the negatives, increased risk of lack of approval or issuing a CRL and stoked fears of massive dilution due to low stock prices. I see the share price tanking to $0.15 or even less. Management will have lost all credibility and many longs will become fed up and this will weigh heavily on the share price as well. It will be a long tough road to approval for the share price which will stay at abysmal levels. I do think that there will be ultimate approval but I don't see the share price appreciating much over $2.00 especially if LP and LG continue to lead NWBO.
I am hoping for the scenario 1above but I have real concerns that the PFS primary endpoint has been met.
AI
