A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Cap, Re: ratio of trades, Buying and Selling...........

One would think the ratio would be 1:1 if the markets were truly "reversion to the mean" in nature. However, the markets have historically had a upward slope to their performance for century. Knowing this one would expect more sells than buys. If I count the "vealies" along with the sells, this is true. Vealies take the place of some selling activity during long upward trending markets. So, overall, including vealies and sells, there have been more activity on the sell side than the buy.

This is true of bull markets certainly. Sometimes my holdings will go well over 12 months with no buying activity.

Bear market are generally shorter in nature as are corrections/consolidations. While selling generally slows time spent in the Lichello Hold Zone increases with occasional buys. It takes quite a setback for the ETFs in my portfolio to move from a Sell all the way to a Buy. Most of my ETFs are set to need at least 15% decline before buying starts. Buys outweigh sells, but there still aren't a lot of buys until a big discount has been seen.

Hope this helps,