If the stock does not rise upon top line revelation, due to the failure of the endpoints, I cannot imagine that the stock price will go anywhere near a dollar. The market, in all probability, will regard this failure as a failure of the trial despite other positive results. The risk of approval is greater through this failure and having to depend upon other factors for approval creates significant FUD.
In any event, after top line revelation, the process of approval will commence. The period for evaluation and approval by the FDA(and other RAs) will likely be lengthened due to the need to evaluate and weigh all of the data including the failed endpoints. I am guessing that approvals will probably issue in 2021 in that case. During this interregnum, NWBO will need to keep the lights on and no doubt will need to go to the capital well a number of times after it undoubtedly sells the remainder of its Sawston property. There will undoubtedly be significant dilution due to the depressed stock price certainly and significantly below a dollar per share. Many erstwhile longs will be disappointed with the stock price after top line revelation adding to the pressure on the share price. This depressed stock price will persist until approval.
Will the stock appreciate significantly as a result? In all probability, fully diluted shares(including warrant conversions) will be well over 2 billion shares unless an R/S takes place, where IMHO, the shorts will take advantage of the higher altitude and vigorously short the stock. There will be issues wrt to commercialisation and the ability of current management to meet this challenge. The naysayers' propaganda machine will be in full swing spewing all sorts of FUD and proclaiming that "proof is in the pudding" and show me the money from commercial operations. To date, it is obvious that NWBO has been battered by market forces and very successfully at that. Just because NWBO receives approval for its product does not mean that its business will be a success. Current management has no credibility with Wall Street. A mixed top line showing certainly won't enhance its credibility. If current management will lead efforts in commercialisation, would their lack of regard by the market be changed just due to approval? I think not. Management will need to prove itself in the commercial world before any appreciable price rise is seen and sustained.
The above scenario can, of course, be avoided if the primary/secondary end points are met. The share price and quickness of RA approvals will crucially hinge upon meeting these endpoints. Ultimate approval may not so depend assuming very positive other data. However, share price appreciation and sustainability is crucial. That is why LP is not rushing to announce top line. She is buying time to try and salvage the jeopardy of failure in these endpoints. Again, I am not categorically saying that they have failed. However, I think that it appears they have failed and that bodes ominously for the share price upon top line revelation. How they handle that scenario is of utmost importance. That is why I think Dave Innes is a key hire. JMHO.
