I believe it is 100% realistic to see major gains. Especially if the products make it to market. However, we are still a bit away from getting our product to market so there is still a lot of unknowns that can happen between now and then. I'm not one to speculate much so I have kept my expectations fairly conservative based on numbers that were thrown around at the time of the merger and the Nomura numbers that were reported in the proxy statement. I've kept my valuation in a range of $800M-$1.1B. Based on the outstanding share count of ~45M this would be a SP in the range of ~$17-$24. This is just my opinion and I would like to see this price range by the end of this year. We should have plenty of news coming with a couple trials reaching primary endpoints in April, presentations at ASCO and ASH, and hopefully the initiation of the phase II trial in AML. All of this should lead to some share price appreciation.
The only speculation I will give you is the comparison to Kite since it has already been made. They were bought out for ~$12B. If we get to the end of this with efficacy to equal them and the safety profile stays the same, i.e. way safer than CAR-T, then there is no reason we couldn't field offers around that valuation. If that were to end up being the case $12B would put the share price based on the fully diluted share count, at this moment, of ~63M at ~$190. I'm not saying this will happen but just showing what the numbers would look like if it did. I would assume the share count will be higher at that point since we will need more funding before then so these numbers won't really matter.
Either way, if things continue with the trials and we get the same results at each phase we should see some substantial share price appreciation. Just remember it isn't going to happen overnight.
Friends don't let friends place market orders
