AI
Monday, March 04, 2019 8:44:11 AM
US Debt/GDP is now over 100% -
As the chart shows, under Reagan the ratio went from 30% to 50%, then it averaged 60% under Clinton and Bush Jr, and then it exploded after the 2008 financial crisis to over 100%.
As Jim Rickards has pointed out, once Debt/GDP gets over 90% or so, additional increases in debt will no longer produce increases in GDP, in fact they have the opposite effect and are a net drag on the economy.
The Fed has been desperate to normalize interest rates and reduce their own bloated balance sheet (via QT), but doing this will induce a recession. So since late 2015 the Fed has encouraged Congress to use fiscal policy (deficit spending/tax cuts) to offset/counterbalance the higher interest rates and QT.
So the big post 2008 'experiment' continues..
As the chart shows, under Reagan the ratio went from 30% to 50%, then it averaged 60% under Clinton and Bush Jr, and then it exploded after the 2008 financial crisis to over 100%.
As Jim Rickards has pointed out, once Debt/GDP gets over 90% or so, additional increases in debt will no longer produce increases in GDP, in fact they have the opposite effect and are a net drag on the economy.
The Fed has been desperate to normalize interest rates and reduce their own bloated balance sheet (via QT), but doing this will induce a recession. So since late 2015 the Fed has encouraged Congress to use fiscal policy (deficit spending/tax cuts) to offset/counterbalance the higher interest rates and QT.
So the big post 2008 'experiment' continues..
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