Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» TEMP Low in Place Reaction Rally
By: Marty Armstrong | March 2, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 1, 2019: The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 152560 is immediately trading down about 1.82% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. Immediately, this market has been declining for 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 154450 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in March is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 151650 intraday and remains trading beneath that level.


The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 12% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.



A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during January. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month but closed on the weak side. Immediately, we have broken beneath last month's low. So far, this is still a reaction decline. We now need to close below 142800 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 162000 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 173600 back during April 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 143140 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. This market is neutral for now on all our monthly indicators. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 162000 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 151950 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 142400 on a closing basis.

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