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NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis »» Temp High Forming
By: Marty Armstrong | January 19, 2019

Analysis for the Week of January 21, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 18, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 128260 and is trading up about 0.10% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days. On a broader perspective, this market has been trading down overall for the past 10 days, since the high established Fri. Jan. 4, 2019 following the high established Wed. Jan. 16, 2019. The NY Gold Nearest Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and then closed below that level falling by 1.15%. The market remains negative on our system indicators with still some underlying support at 127960 with the overhead resistance standing at 128640. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. The market is trading within our envelop albeit skewed to the bearish side.

We have not broken below that intraday Crash Point number suggesting this is not yet a panic sell-off type of move. The Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 127245 which we are trading above as of this session's closing at 128260. This typically warns that if we hold this level intraday, then the sell-off has not yet breached key technical support. Of course, a closing beneath this number will imply a sharp decline is likely.

Nonetheless, the market remains particularly weak near-term with initial resistance forming at the 128650 area while broader intermediate underlying system support is still present on our indicators. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 12/31 in gold followed by the silver target due the week of 1/7. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of December 31st at 130040 for 2 weeks.

Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. To date, we have continue to trade within last year's range of 136940 to 136940. . This suggests that a closing below the previous year's low should imply a continued decline into 2020 remains possible. A closing above 128130 would imply a possible correction with a retest of the downside becomes possible into 2021.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 22% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 165862 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Employing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 128480 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 123640. This provides a 3.76% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 132640 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.95%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 128260, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.

A possible change in trend appears due come April in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 128650 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 128650 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 129480. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 31st at 130040, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 13th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.

Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 22 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 128020 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 130040, which was created during the week of December 31st.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 months. The previous monthly level low was 116270, which formed during August 2018, and only a break of 119660 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April 2018. However, we still remain below key resistance 136540 on a closing basis.

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