NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[IkeEsq]

At the ASM, perhaps somebody could ask of Management what exactly are the conditions which will trigger the unblinding of the trial. We should all then be able to keep our collective eyes open for when those trigger points are reached and can make more reasonable deductions as to what a failure to announce the unblinding really means.

Decided not to take my advice, huh? ;)

This won't happen. Why not? Because there is no set criteria. First, there is a group of doctors advising NWBO on when to unblind based on the data. It is up to them, not Management, to recommend unblinding based on the whole of the data. Second, this is not some linear progression like OS or PFS, nor the number of patients surviving past 36 months, nor even a number that can be generated by dividing the percentage of methylated patients over 65 showing pseudo-progression by the square root of the number of non-resected patients living to 36 months after surgery. It is a matter of looking at the data as a whole (as was stated during the proxy meeting in April 2018) and making a determination based on knowledge and experience in the field whether or not the data is sufficient to get approval and show what the treatment is capable of achieving.

Next, even assuming that they could provide some such criteria that any but the most technically savvy of us (i.e. not me) could understand, we would not have the data or tools at our disposal to measure their progress and thus it would do us no good. Meanwhile, it would fuel further insane prognostications about how "they said that they would unblind as soon as the cube root of the number of methylated patients past 48 months was higher than the cosign of the number of unmethylated patients over 70. According to this chart I made, they clearly should have met that by now so management is all poopy-heads and they lied and the trial failed and they gave themselves stock options for doing nothing while patients are dying and LP is the worst because she is a lawyer and should have known how to re-pin a 66-block and restore phone service and they are stupid."

If Management can't / won't provide that information and refuses to explain why, it will be perhaps the final nail in this company's coffin should that date arrive and nothing happens. I have no doubt that will drive the SP even further lower, even to bankruptcy, aided by the sudden influx onto the market of genuine shares being sold by genuine long-term holders.

So you suggest that it is in the company's best interests to announce some made-up criteria so that investors can track progress even though they don't have the data (or probably knowledge) to do so but then say that should their made-up criteria not match up with reality it will doom the company? So how about if they just don't do that? You have just laid out exactly why they should not and will not do any such thing.

Are you reading this, Management?

Doubt it, but at least if they do it will only encourage them to do the right thing and stay the course, spending their time working on getting this approved.

Number one rule of the Internet: Don't read the comments.