Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[biowreck]

BB...ok so you asked “what’s my peak sales guess”. Well imho, sales projections are going to be based on a number of “realistic figures”...so for example, we’ve heard many times that the us market alone for statinistas is 40m. But in reality, are 40 m people really taking their statins? So I’m gonna cut that number by 50%...20m which is over the average 15m users estimated to be actually taking statins. Now I’m not considering diabetic and other ailments either. So at 100% market penetration of 20m users, times an avg script cost of 2800 on an annual basis, you get $5.6b . I don’t believe any bp will buy into 100% percent market penetration, so let’s go with a conservative 30-40%. So 1.7 - 2.24b in peak sales us market. I have no idea what the row potential is.
Nor can I reasonably estimate Des and inflammation market. I won’t even touch Alzheimer’s or cancer cause it’s totally hypothetical at this point and I don’t believe bp will even entertain that market without clinical outcomes.