NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[CogDiss 1188X]

Longfellow, much appreciated that you went as far as you did trying to bring me up to speed on reading the tea leaves related to partially released trial results. As you point out, assumptions must be made at significant points along the way. My fear is that the error bounds on all these many points will fuzz up the final answer to such an extent that any signal will be lost in the noise. That intelligent analysts come to completely opposite conclusions doesn’t bode well for me, especially when there is disagreement on basic facts. That this becomes part of the house of mirrors around Nwbo shouldn’t come as a surprise, I suppose.

Regarding confounding - unfortunately can’t provide a sword to cut the knot there either but I came across an article which contends that crossover designs, contrary to the impulse that gives rise to them, are unethical because they may fail to answer the question that could have been answered clearly otherwise. You’re probably aware of the article since no small tidbit goes unnoticed or unanalyzed around here, but the idea had never occurred to me so I found it of interest. As Rumsfeld suggested, it’s the unknown unknowns you have to watch out for. Ironic referencing Rummy in the context of ethical choices but the guy had a way with words.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/24365533/

That I found the author’s point worth taking into account doesn’t suggest much about my views on the clinical trial process as a whole. It seems to be operating as a barrier to entry more than anything else, but there’s a lot of “else” to consider too. As you know, the topic of trial reform is vast.

Keep up the good fight - patients need advocates who are aware of the depth and breath of the issues that prevent effective treatments from reaching them.