Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

We know that Anavex enrolled the first patient in the P2b/3 AD trial on or before 28th August 2018.
Maybe that was climate scientist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Barrie Pittock, or someone else.

I believe Anavex Australia began advertising for patients already in July 2018
There has been a good amount of prior publicity around the A2-73 P2a trial in Australia, so it would be fair to assume a flying start to recruitment.

As of December 2018 75% representing 9 of 12 trial sites were active.

Let's say that each trial centre recruits just 5 patients per month and that two new sites are activated per month, which would give us 9 by mid December.

Sept: 2 centres * 5 patients each = 10
Oct: 4 centres * 5 patients each = 20
Nov: 6 centres * 5 patients each = 30
Dec: 9 centres * 5 patients each = 45
Total recruitment by end Dec = 105
At same linear rate:
Jan: 11 centres * 5 patients each = 55
Feb: 12 centres * 5 patients each = 60
Mar: 12 centres * 5 patients each = 60
Apr: 12 centres * 5 patients each = 60
May: 12 centres * 5 patients each = 60
Jun: 12 centres * 5 patients each = 50
End June 2019 fully recruited = 450 patients
Dosing 48 weeks -> topline data mid 2020