NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) Summary Analysis »» Turning Back UP By: Marty Armstrong | January 12, 2019
Analysis for the Week of January 14, 2019
OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 11, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5159 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. So far, we have been trading up for the past 14 days since the low made on Mon. Dec. 24, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high intraday and closed lower. Clearly, this market is still above the critical point support at this time, which lies at 4717. Additionally, our central cyclical study models also ended in a bearish mode for the closing. Furthermore, the shorterm oscillators have also signalled a possible crash is not likely. We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 4949 settling at 5259. The current crash mode support for this session was 5120 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 5159 implying the market is still rather vulnerable yet sustaining for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 5101. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding.
We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 5310 settling at 5259 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 5328 which we exceeded intraday, however, the market was unable to sustain that move and it closed back under this indicator. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 5381. Now we closed above this immediate indicator in the current trading session, but we closed beneath this next indicator already meaning it is above the last closing. Therefore, we either must open above it and hold or close above it to imply the rally is still in play. Otherwise, failure to excced 5381 in the next session warns we are not in a breakout posture. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. So far, we have exceeded last year's high of 7690 reaching 1488438 intraday. This suggests that a closing above the previous year's high should imply a continued rally into 2020 remains possible. A closing beneath 4541 would imply a possible correction into 2020 with a retest of the upside come 2021.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 98% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 9547 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Considering our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 5456 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 4510. This provides a 17% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9592 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 4364. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 54%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 5159, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 5.44% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come March in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during October 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4236 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5455 to 4236. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 4995. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 1st at 7690, which was up 67 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of December 24th, which has been a move of.2329%. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 12 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 7690, which was created during the week of October 1st. The previous weekly level low was 4236, which formed during the week of December 24th, and only a break of 4435 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6733 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4290 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1401 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1403 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 7690, which was created during October 2018. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6629 above the market.
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