NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | January 5, 2019
Analysis for the Week of January 7, 2019
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jan. 4, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 4796 and is trading up about 5.61% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. So far, we have been trading up for the past 2 days since the key low made on Wed. Jan. 2, 2019. We have advanced 8.53% from the previous day implying the market is still very strong. The NY Crude Oil Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high in a very sharp move up posting a gain on a closing basis of 1.84%. The market remains neutral on our main system indicators with support at 4660 and resistance at 4835. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. However, an opening BELOW 4794 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temprorarily.
We closed above our Projected Breakout Resistance which stood at 4720 so this is quite positive. This indicator for the next session will stand at 4994, which is above the closing price action currently. Normally, when you open above this number or we rally to close above it, then the market will start to rally further. However, a closing below will not indicate a reversal in trend, just that the market is posturing at this time. So, pay attention for this is a dynamic number that will change with each session. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. So far, we have exceeded last year's high of 7690 reaching 1488438 intraday. This suggests that a closing above thre previous year's high should imply a continued rally into 2020 remains possible. A closing beneath 4541 would imply a possible correction with a retest of the upside come 2021.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 84% which has been a strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 9547 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Considering our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 5456 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 4510. This provides a 17% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9592 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 4364. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 54%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 4796, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 12% beneath that level.
Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come March in NY Crude Oil Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during October 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4236 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5455 to 4236. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 4836. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 1st at 7690, which was up 67 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of December 24th, which has been a move of.1459%. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 12 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 7690, which was created during the week of October 1st. The previous weekly level low was 4236, which formed during the week of December 24th, and only a break of 4236 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6733 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4290 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1401 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1403 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 7690, which was created during October 2018. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6629 above the market.
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