Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[SonamKapoor]

BioB: Unfortunately, I view it as VERY difficult for AMRN to enjoy a COGS advantage by dominating the supply chain like a John Paul Getty of EPA. Industry reports still cite the 2016 iffo/UN FAOSTAT commissioned report (posted by DiTD here in 2016) for about 115,000 mt +/- depending on annual quota allocations of total of EPA (lower than my back-of-the-napkin estimate in Oct to JL). Realistically then, that's about 50-80 million patients per year at current dosages. 80 million assumes a Getty of EPA could get all marine sourced oil to make V. 50 million assumes from the sources with the most EPA (= cheaper to produce the EPA since less concentrating)

It would be nice to improve the bio-availability of V and maybe only require half the dose. Like Rosemount and others here have said (and also Dr. Matthew Budoff in the July STAT interview)- compliance can be difficult for those who don't personally compare it to injection, but rather large V capsules to a smaller statin pill.

What's your opinion - should we expect 55% compliance which is about what I saw cited in a few adherence studies between different drug classes when I last searched it (and what I'm using in my valuation scenario)?

Anyway, so I think COGS stays the same or trends up a little in the range of up to 5 to 10 million patients treated and likely would go up beyond that because its a finite natural resource (tight supply = higher prices). Also in 2020 there are going to be new fuel rules going into effect for ocean vessels which will raise ocean freight costs which already are increasing this year ahead of the rule change:

www.exxonmobil.com/en/marine/technicalresource/news-resources/imo-sulphur-cap-and-mgo-hfo

IMO 2020

I view it as-

1) if EPA from harvested marine sourced oils = sprawling global supply chain (political, regulatory, and transportation risks and costs)

2) if from alt-sources (SCOs) = still would need to be build FDA pharma grade level plants next to the SCO production sites or you'll still have high logistics costs and regardless you have substantially higher energy costs to grow out the algae

Also, new rules went into effect last year in the US making truckers harder to come by as many have gotten out of trucking since they have to report electronically all their hours (forcing them to take mandated rest breaks which reduces their profit from lower turnover rates).

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Synthetic epoxides of EPA/DHA molecules - that'll be a different chapter for potential domination a decade or more from now.