Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[SonamKapoor]

Afish: here you go

Amarin’s CEO drops enough JPM19 hints to know Vascepa sales driving higher
By ADAM FEUERSTEIN @adamfeuerstein JANUARY 9, 2019


ALEX HOGAN/STAT
SAN FRANCISCO — Amarin (AMRN) CEO John Thero used his Wednesday breakout session at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference to not-so-subtly telegraph a stronger 2019 sales outlook for Vascepa than the company’s official guidance offered last week.

Thero, of course, can’t come out directly and say that Vascepa, Amarin’s heart drug derived from fish oil, will deliver significantly more than a 50 percent year-over-year increase to $350 million in 2019 sales. Like Fight Club, the first rule of sandbagging revenue guidance is not talking about sandbagging revenue guidance.

But during meetings with investors over three days here, and then on Wednesday during the breakout session, Thero dropped plenty of hints.

Vascepa sales in the fourth quarter were approximately $74 million, growing 35 percent sequentially. That puts the drug on a $300 million annual run rate already, without any expanded marketing push.

The company’s Vascepa salesforce, increased from 135 to 400 reps, just started to make doctor calls on Monday.

The New England Journal of Medicine is publishing print copies of the Vascepa REDUCE-IT study this week. Under Amarin’s First-Amendment, off-label drug marketing settlement with the FDA, the company’s sales reps will be able to use the NEJM paper to promote the cardiovascular benefits of Vascepa well before the FDA expands the label officially.

Amarin is purchasing enough Vascepa inventory in 2019 to support sales of up to “at least” $700 million this year.

The first (current) quarter is historically the weakest for Vascepa sales, Thero cautioned, because patients with insurance have to work through their renewed insurance deductibles. Growth re-accelerates in the second quarter and throughout the rest of the year, he said.

Thero’s bullish message is getting out there. While Amarin’s stock price dipped last Friday when Vascepa guidance was announced, shares have since risen more than 20 percent. On Wednesday alone, Amarin is up 9 percent to $15.23.