Thrift Savings Plan

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Yes, the market has been overvalued for some time. I seem to recall that a year ago that John Hussman, PhD, said the market was as overvalued as the peak of the dot.com era when considering the median PE as the measure. I just never considered Valuation to be a great timing indicator, because it can remain high for so long. There are now about 3000 stocks listed on the NYSE. In year 2000, that number was closer to 4000. With population growth, we now have more investors chasing fewer stocks driving PEs higher than in the past. I think record PEs are to be expected. I bet the PEs were extreme when the markets had a 19% correction in 1998. The market went up for another 2-years after the correction. Will it happen in this 19% correction? Don’t know.
History says that we will retest the lows so I think it is a good idea to sell this rally. We’ll find out at the retest if we are going to have a crash or a rebound.