NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 29, 2018
Analysis for the Week of December 31, 2018
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Dec. 28, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 4533 immediately is trading down about 24% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, but this has been an inside trading session warning caution (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2020. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2020 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2021 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2020. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 9270. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 5243.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 74% which has been a respectable advance to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 7528 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 4510. This provides a 40% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9592 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5070. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 47%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 4533, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 39% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come February 2019 in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4941 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 4941 closing yesterday at 4533. We now need to close below 4941 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
Our Daily level momentum is neutral while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 4236.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 1st at 7690, which was up 67 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading down for the past 12 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of .4491%.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 1st has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7527 made back during the week of July 2nd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of May 21st. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 4205 made the week of June 19th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1853 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1865 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 7690, which was created during the week of October 1st. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6733 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during October. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1401 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1402 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 7690, which was created during October. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6629 above the market.
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