NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | January 5, 2019
Analysis for the Week of January 7, 2019
OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 4, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 128580 and is trading up about 0.35% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. So far, we have been trading up for the past 15 days since the key low made on Fri. Dec. 14, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high intraday and closed below that same session low creating an outside reversal to the downside which was a very sharp swing of 1.71%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side closing beneath the previous session low. The market remains positive on our system indicators still with some overhead resistance at 128660 while support lies at 128480. This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.
We did close above the previous session's Projected Technical Resistance indicator which was 129436 settling at 129480. The current rally resistance for this session was 130044 which we have now closed below suggesting the rally is losing momentum. However, the Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 130394, which is still above the current closing. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the rally may resume. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 12/31 in gold followed by the silver target due the week of 1/7. Up to now, we were declining in this market from the previous high was made the week of December 30th for the past 7 weeks with a retest of of the upside the week of December 31st testing resistance at 130040.
Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. So far, we have exceeded last year's high of 136940 reaching 1488438 intraday. This suggests that a closing above thre previous year's high should imply a continued rally into 2020 remains possible. A closing beneath 128130 would imply a possible correction with a retest of the upside come 2021.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 22% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 165862 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 132250 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 123870. This provides a 6.33% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 132640 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.95%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 128580, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 2.77% beneath that level.
Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come April in NY Gold Nearest Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 128650 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 128650 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 131522 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
Our Daily level momentum is neutral while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 127970.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 31st at 130040, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 13th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 130040 to 127810. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 31st reaching 130040 has exceeded the previous high of 124600 made back during the week of October 22nd. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 14 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 20 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 126000 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 130040, which was created during the week of December 31st, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 months. The previous monthly level low was 116270, which formed during August 2018, and only a break of 119660 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April 2018. However, we still remain below key resistance 136540 on a closing basis.
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