NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 22, 2018
Analysis for the Week of December 24, 2018
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Dec. 21, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 4559 immediately is trading down about 24% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 25 days, while we have made a low at 4513 following the high established Fri. Nov. 16, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 4677 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2020. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2020 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2021 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2020. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 9270. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 5243.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 75% which has been a respectable advance to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 6717 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 4557. This provides a 32% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9592 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5070. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 47%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 4559, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 32% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come February 2019 in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4941 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 4941 closing yesterday at 4559. We now need to close below 4941 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 5327. To date, this decline has been down fortwenty five daily sessions.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 1st at 7690, which was up 67 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1726% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 3rd reaching 5455 failed to exceed the previous high of 7690 made back during the week of October 1st. That rally amounted to onlyone week. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of November 26th and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 28 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1862 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1864 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 5455, which was created during the week of December 3rd. The previous weekly level low was 4941, which formed during the week of November 26th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 5475 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during October. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1401 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1402 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 7690, which was created during October. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6629 above the market.
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