Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 29, 2018

Analysis for the Week of December 31, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Dec. 28, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 128300 immediately is trading down about 2.00% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. So far, we have been trading up for the past 10 days since the reaction low made on Fri. Dec. 14, 2018, but the key low was made 33 days ago on Tue. Nov. 13, 2018 at 119660. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite strong. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 12/31 in gold followed by the silver target due the week of 1/7. Up to now, we were declining in this market from the previous high was made the week of December 30th for the past 6 weeks with a retest of of the upside the week of December 24th testing resistance at 128470.

On a broader cyclical perspective, the view of the future is clearly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. However, we also have a directional change due in 2019, which means we should keep an eye on that target ahead. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 130930 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2022 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2021. Our pivot point for the year is 764561 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 143260. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 113030.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 22% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 132250 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 124680. This provides a 5.72% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 132640 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.95%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 128300, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 2.98% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, so far this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 124600. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month but closed on the positive side. At this time, we have exceeded last month's high and we are trading above it on a closing basis. We must close this month above 123930 to suggest any further upside potential. We now need to close above 123930 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 127390. To date, this rally has been up for ten daily sessions.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 24th at 128470, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 13th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 128470 to 126000. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 24th reaching 128470 has exceeded the previous high of 124600 made back during the week of October 22nd. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 123940 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 128470, which was created during the week of December 24th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

The market is trading some 2.96% percent above the last high 124600 from which we did originally obtain three sell signals from that event established during October. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 116260 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-525 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 526 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 124600, which was created during October, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally. The previous monthly level low was 116270, which formed during August, and only a break of 118600 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 121070 on a closing basis.

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