Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

OFP, Thanks For Pointing Out The Error — Corrected

Here are the base metrics:

5,700,000 Americans have Alzheimer’s.
https://alz.org/media/Documents/alzheimers-facts-and-figures-infographic.pdf

Approximately 44 million people worldwide living have Alzheimer’s disease or a related dementia.
https://alzheimersnewstoday.com/alzheimers-disease-statistics/

An estimated seven to 10 million people worldwide are living with Parkinson’s disease.
Approximately 60,000 Americans are diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease each year,....
http://www.parkinsonassociation.org/facts-about-parkinsons-disease/

...a global study of the impact of a wide range of health conditions published in 2017, estimated that just over 6 million people across the world are currently living with Parkinson’s.
https://medium.com/parkinsons-uk/how-many-people-have-parkinsons-61d04979a770

So, for these two diseases, across the world, there are about 50 million potential Anavex patients — with far greater numbers as world populations emerge into old age.

Ok, let’s assume that Anavex will be used to treat only 5% of the global populations of these two diseases. That’s a patient population of 2.5 million.

Big unknown here. How much will each patient (or her government or health insurance company) pay for a year of Anavex treatment? How much will Anavex charge? We can only guestimate.

At $5 a day, that’s an annual per-patient revenue gain by Anavex Life Sciences Corp about $1800. At $10 a day, about $3600.

To find gross annual corporate revenues, multiply those per-patient revenue numbers times the number of patients treated. Lots of zeros.

Estimating drop-downs (if there will be any) for dividends is very hazy. If dividends are 10% of gross corporate revenues, multiply them times 0.1. For per-share dividends, divide that metric by the number of outstanding shares (presently ~46.5 million).

Then, presume some price/earnings ratio, and multiple the dividend price by that datum. That gives an estimate of the share price. PE ratios are commonly (now), as far as I can tell, from 1/10 to 1/25. (I’m a biologist, not an astute student of stock investment details — correct me on any of this, please.)

Of course, all of these metrics are hazy; can vary widely. Punching the numbers will require high-range and low-range lines for each.

Nonetheless, even at the lowest range, say, Anavex treating only 2.5 million people a year, at an annual pills cost of $5/day ($1800 per year), this yields gross annual corporate revenues of $4,500,000,000. That’s $4.5 billion.

But maybe therapeutic doses will cost only $0.50 per day (not $5.) With that, annual per-patient revenues would be about $180. With 2.5 million patients per year, corporate revenues would be only $450,000,000; four and half million dollars.

Of course, if Anavex never gets a drug to market (the clinical trials all fail), all of the revenue numbers will be zero. Don’t invest dollars in AVXL you can’t afford to lose. Informed speculation, best only with discretionary dollars — all dependent upon successful clinical trials results (which appear from extensive murine studies to be very likely).

(Now, was that “pumping?”)