Thrift Savings Plan

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In the Aug 2011 correction, the S&P 500 bounced up from the 20th new low (where we are in this correction) with an up day of 4.25%. The next day it gave it all back and retested the low. That was followed by another up day of 4.6% and several up-days and then a lot of choppiness for another two months. The final 21st new-low was 2% lower than its prior low 2 months earlier.

We’re definitely not out of the woods. I will add this though. Yesterday we saw 96% up-volume with a strong close. Lowry Research has described this type of move as a major market reversal.
“In approximately half the cases in the past 69 years, the 90% Upside Day…which signaled a major market reversal, occurred within five trading days or less of the market low.” – Lowry Research.

Yesterday’s 90% upside-day was 1-day after the market low.

Still, the bottom line for me is: We can’t have a significant drop below 2350.