NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 15, 2018
Analysis for the Week of December 17, 2018
OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Dec. 14, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 5120 immediately is trading down about 15% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trendWe have advanced 5.16% from the previous day implying the market is still very strong. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2020. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2020 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2021 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2020. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 9270. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 5243.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 96% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 6717 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 4912. This provides a 26% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9592 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5070. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 47%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 5120, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 23% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come February 2019 in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4941 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 6539 to 4941. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 1st at 7690, which was up 67 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of .0769% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 3rd reaching 5455 failed to exceed the previous high of 7690 made back during the week of October 1st. That rally amounted to onlyone week. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 5015. Resistance is to be found starting at 6263. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1862 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1863 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 5455, which was created during the week of December 3rd. The previous weekly level low was 4941, which formed during the week of November 26th, and only a break of 5008 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 5475 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during October. Critical support still underlies this market at 4655 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1401 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1402 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 7690, which was created during October. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6629 above the market.
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