Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Biostockclub]

According to this article, or the author’s assessment rather, the Amyloid theory looks to live or die based on BIIB’s candidates. They remain the last bastion of the theory.

Couple interesting points to consider when analyzing the overall landscape:

If the Amyloid theory is put to rest, once and for good, this allows the stuffy, scientific, closed up room to finally throw open the windows to ventilate and inhale new theories.
(The reigning Don has to die before they can kiss the new ring. Guess I’m a wartime consigliere.)

Seeing as how the BP/FDA has ruled the AD space research like Pol Pot in “re-education” of everyone to this way of thinking (Amyloid theory) for the last 30 years, it will now take some real re-education on the part of the scientific and bureaucratic communities to usher in anything new, be it sigma 1 receptor agonism, or some other approach. I think this step is underway. US does not want to finish last in this race - the one in which, if you’re not first...you’re last. There is no second, third...place.

I think Biogen has the business savvy to have studied the field it is playing in and can see that further development of these drugs - which is only being CONSIDERED at this point, is a dreadful waste of resources. The article states that the chances of BAN2041, and elenbecestat (both Eisai collabs are less promising than their solo effort aducanumab. That’s interesting and could suggest a possible break with Eisai is in the offing as some here have suggested.

If Biogen wishes to remain in the AD space, it will have to put all of its faith in their solo drug or perhaps scan for something new with promise. They probably have a good handle on what their drug will do (pass/fail) based on previous Amyloid failures. They have also upped their rhetoric on “bigger, later stage acquisitions” in last couple earnings calls via their CFO.

This is a pre-2019 walkback from the 2018 year of data in which they promised investors the world. Gee - we catch all kind of Hell for indicating our drug has any potential based on science and sample size...TAKE A LOOK AT BIIB’s sample size (10!) and results in relation to placebo. Whoosh!

Recall how many times I reiterated that the timing of their PR’s indicated they had blinked and given away their game? I speculated that a deal would follow when we had runners in scoring position and PDD was quickest way to get there. I said they would put pressure by holding CAPS LOCK on our share price in order to keep the price down so that we could not tap Cantor for additional funding at a decent rate. We would see the message board in full court press negative posts about our science, management, fire Missling and the Board - in order to get that poison pill protection knocked out (Hudsucker Proxy!). All has come to pass.
Now, with runners in scoring position, PDD is moving along “swiftly” and AD is enrolling, Rett is approved...the rhetoric coming from the investor sites is looking capitulation-y. As predicted. Not a surprise at all. If PDD returns positive results, the price of poker goes sky high for a deal because we can easily finance everything else and MC goes up.

Mound visit coming. Hold! And expect bunches of replies indicating that this is delusional thinking and we are not on anybody’s radar (wink - THAT train is never late!)

GLTAL
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Biogen's BAN2401 Not A Home Run Anymore, But Still Holds Some Promise $BIIB
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229852