Micron Technology (MU)

[JLS]

Treasury rate inversions.

Pay strict attention to these as they very accurately (like 100%) predict significant market corrections and bear markets. They also predict small corrections that you can ignore, so ...

Works every time: when there are yield inversions (even slight ones) you can count on -- AKA 100% certain -- encountering stock market corrections or bear markets right away or in the very near future, or it already started and you arrived late to the party. Granted, you can make a lot of money in declining markets, BUT the volatility can be so high that it can be difficult to always get either entry timing or exit timing correct if you don't have experience shorting things -- by the time you see it you might think it's too late, or you don't see much of a correction yet so you think it might be better to ride it out. After all, some corrections don't amount to much.

Stockcharts Dynamic Yield Curve

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

The above chart is great to use but it lacks preciseness -- meaning very small rate inversions don't show up very well. The way to use the chart is to grab the vertical red line seen at the far right of the right-hand chart then move it to the left as you observe the left-hand chart. While doing that, if you see the trace in the left-hand chart create what looks like a flat trace (such as between 2Y and 5Y treasury yields) then there might be a rate inversion (which smells like a bear market). If you see that, you can verify it with the chart links below. If there is no doubt that there is a rate inversion then you are too late and you should think about turning all your long trades into cash and/or short the market.

The left-had chart also has a control at its bottom -- the square handle referred to as "Trail length". Grab the handle with your mouse and drag it to the right.

Now the good news. There are rate inversions during which the market doesn't suffer very much and can quickly correct a small amount then go significantly higher. Markets are like that; they like to mess with your head. Now move the vertical red line over to the period prior to the year 2,000 and see what happened. Huge inversion. And with the yields one could get then, it's easy to imagine that conservative investors would sell their stocks to raise cash to buy Treasuries.

If the inversion is so flat that it is difficult to see with the chart linked above, then use the charts below. At this point the inversion is so slight that it is difficult to see with the above chart. If fact, the inversion is so slight that it might soon go away. In fact, it did go away today on the 2Y/5Y chart. But it went very slightly higher on the 2Y/3Y chart. Will the inversions go away during following days? I don't have a clue.

You can ignore my opinion but here it is anyway: the yields on the 2Y and 5Y are so low such that nobody in their right mind would sell their stock positions to raise cash so that they can buy treasuries (and thus cause the stock market to go down) when they yield only a little over 2%. So all this talk about rate inversions by the talking heads on TV (and not the inversions themselves) is really what's driving the market lower. Boo!!!

Stockcharts 2/3 Yield Curve

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST2Y:$UST3Y&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p6769480039c

Stockcharts 2/5 Yield Curve

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST2Y:$UST5Y&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p6769480039c