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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 8, 2018

Analysis for the Week of December 10, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Dec. 7, 2018: Dow Jones Industrials closing today of 2438895 immediately is trading down about 1.33% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Dec. 6, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains quite weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2022. At this time, the market is trading below last year's close of 2471922 which is bearish. Furthermore, the market is trading above our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year residing at 1793517, which is positive. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 1534068 which is 37% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very protracted extended period of 226 years reflecting the inevitable trend of progressive inflation. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 44 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2009 from which we have experienced a 9 year rally. From a cyclical perspective, if this year closes lower than 2471922, then we can see a consolidation into then next ideal target.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 4760567 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2532700 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2419833. This provides a 4.45% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 2661672 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2399720. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.84%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 2438895, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 3.70% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in Dow Jones Industrials so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month but closed on the positive side. Immediately, we have broken beneath last month's low. So far, this is still a reaction decline. We now need to close below 2426874 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 2470726. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 29th at 2412223, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 1st. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of December 3rd, which has been a move of .0668 percent.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 2627782, which was created during the week of November 5th. The previous weekly level low was 2412223, which formed during the week of October 29th, and only a break of 2436413 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 2523601 above the market.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2399720 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 39 months. The previous monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, and only a break of 2412223 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 2695181, which was created during October. However, we still remain below key resistance 2558724 on a closing basis.

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