My premise is that big P will do nothing unless and until they get a peek under the covers. They will pay neither a high or low price or any price in-between for reasons that are obvious and which I have stated a number of times.
LP not setting a date for data-lock, giving an inordinately long process time to unblinding, declaring that there are good reasons for continuing the trial, not making full disclosure on the spring refresh, no set date on the ASM, silence on business announcements not weeks but 6 months and counting since ASCO 2018 are of great concern and thus the vacillation in the pps. November has come and gone and it appears ditto for December with empty NWBO stockings for all except LP and friends.
I am long with a significant stake but the evergreen options pool and warrant grab is disgusting. I am all for incentive compensation, but LP/LG thus far have not earned it. Rather on their watch, MC has been devastated. All they have are conspiracy excuses(where is Cofer Black in all this and the suit that was to be filed in Federal Court? Was this all rumour?) and no reasons for silence(e.g., reasons for halt and lift, etc.). And they should be rewarded with options now??????? Where is BOD oversight? What happened to their fiduciary duties to ordinary shareholders? By their passiveness and lack of backbone because they are well compensated, they only serve to add to the dilution all the while the pps linger in the doldrums. Shameful. I don't think that NWBO is very attractive unless:
1. Unblind;
2. The results are stellar and unambiguous.
Thus forget about big P for now and forever if the results are short of a home run. JMHO. Why give any money to a pig in a polk?
LP alluded to the concept that the regulatory path is unclear. Really? I beg to differ: meet the end points and the path is abundantly clear. I agree, however, that if LP does not meet trial endpoints or results are mixed and/or ambiguous, the regulatory path for her is unclear and requires "pioneering"(meaning alternative criteria agreed to by a persuaded FDA).
Accordingly, the delays and silence, considered in this context, are understandable if she has serious doubts and needs to hurl a St. Mary's long tail touch down pass. I think she wants to let the trial continue---there are good reasons for this as she says if her data, and she has much more than we do with her cohort of expert statisticians, SAB, PIs, suggests that the endpoints might be iffy. OTOH, she needs to appease the hoi polloi shareholders who fear an evergreen trial by saying they should proceed to data-lock but intentionally does not give a time-line buying her more time and extending that even more by her long drawn out collection/analysis process. Just more of the same with NWBO in a predictable pattern. Reasonable and increasingly frustrated investors see this and so does big P. Hopefully, they get Sawston done but the delay there tells me that even that is iffy and they won't net out enough money.
Given the foregoing analysis, there may be another mini-toxic bridge to a huge and toxic dilutive financing when they run out of "creative" alternatives(it will be the last one--promise) on "commitments" that unblinding will take place not later than the end of 2019 and we shareholders will be thankful for it. Trust NWBO management and by all means stay tuned. Anybody got some aspirin? I got another headache.
AI
