Hi LF:
Well OK till January sounds to me like they need to have a plan to raise cash now. January is about a month away. Not the best of circumstances I suspect.
Well, yes, I suppose saying no alternatives other than raising capital through Sawston is a bit extreme, however, I don't see other non-dilutive alternatives raising at least some moderate cash. IMHO, unblinding the trial shortly and announcing a date for data-lock is a sine qua non. Absent a peek at the unblinded results, I highly doubt any big P will come off the sidelines.
Big P stance depends very much upon the results. If mixed and ambiguous, big P will definitely not write out a big check if at all. The ambiguity wrt announcing a definitive date for data-lock and the process--is it all serial, partially parallel, etc. raises serious questions concerning just how confident LP is with looming results. Hence the almost singular focus upon the long tail. Primary and secondary end points may be in jeopardy according to her data--and she has much more than we do--and accordingly she may feel that she needs to hit long tail out of the park.She said there are good reasons to continue the trial. I think she would if finances were not such an issue. Is it enough to mitigate ambiguous results in the primary and secondary end points? Under such a scenario, how long would approval take? What would be the extent of big P interest? Is current NWBO management capable of going it alone in commercialisation? All of this weighs on investors and is not lost on big P watching silently while their prey struggles. This whole situation, continual silence, vague statements when they do release statements, failure to meet time-lines, etc., etc. provokes fear, uncertainty and the rest.
For the record, I am long. I believe in the science. But for it I would have been a different kind of long---long gone. JMHO.
