Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[lowlevelowl88]

I am in this camp as well.

IMO the "one drug" point cannot be overstated. For the sake of argument, say they GIA indefinitely. They will eventually have a difficult time maintaining forward growth for lack of pipeline. There will be other indications, you say. Well, sure, but that can take years, and how does that affect the 2029 Teva settlement? Even if it causes the settlement to evaporate ;), those trial results are still unknowns until they're not, so it's a gamble against time.

Short of the BO price tag, this is a dream product for an acquirer. Efficacious, safe, approved with label expansion coming, naturally-derived, growing supply chain in place, and the price is politically-friendly at a time when drug prices are under fire.

At this point, I think the only hold up is bid vs ask. BP knows they have the operational muscle and sales firepower to sell the hell out of V. Docs are buying in, insurers will cover. Once institutional investors and M&A analysts fully wrap their collective heads around the TAM, we'll see pps closer to the window where premium can close the gap to a reasonable offer.

I could also see one of the Japanese pharmas known for over-paying coming in to kick things off, but I have a hard time seeing insatiable beasts like NVS, SNY, PFE, AMGN, GSK, AZN, J&J, etc let LeBron James get drafted by another team in their division. (I'm a Michael and Kobe guy personally.)

This is just my take, but this company doesn't exist next Chirstmas.

EU partnership talk is all smokescreen. Wont happen in my opinion. This is a one drug company and a biotechnology company. They are not in the business of running a full scale business. Selling Vascepa for REDUCE-IT is significantly different than selling for Very high TGs. For that they will need to restructure the entire organization. Hire hundreds more. Thus this will be come a business. I personally feel they will not do that. 400 reps will obviously not be enough and everyday lost is the final patent peak day sales lost. This is critical for them and for potential buyer. My brain cannot compute that there is no one interested in this company after the AHA results. I just cannot believe it. I still maintain we will have at least one bid by Q1 2019