Why I think we `Are done `:
1. Mandatory Share Conversion:
When I asked my head Equity trader what that would normally mean he answered ‘the only reason is M&A ‘
2. The `Multiple Sources`:
“late stage; parallel negotiations with different unrelated third parties; regarding "substantial alternative potential financings"; "Company anticipates the accounting and disclosure could be impacted by the completion of this process."
3. Ridiculous forward-looking statement
With every caveat possible, this statement was not that of a $100m m/c battered CEO who’s desperate for help who just loaned the company $5m.
4. The DATA:
Or more relevantly the lack of PR over the data. There was only a minimum or PR over data that smashed the previous year’s data.
This lack of PR was not that of a $100m m/c battered CEO who’s desperate for help and who just loaned the company $5m. It’s actually more in line with the actions of a CEO whose been told by a Large Pharma that they want to spread the word on completion of a deal with us.
5. The Comp Share Awards: same as 1, all liabilities that impact the share count have to be out in the open prior to corporate action so the shareholders of the company that buys us have total transparency on the impact of the acquisition.
So, none of what`s been going on are the actions of a beleaguered company with a battered CEO.
I do not hear the echo of ASCO`s ` Please help us ` in anything above.
Lots of other stars are in alignment, none less than the abject failure of other relevant cancer trials and what about the sale of Cognate, we sold it because we don’t need it.
We may get Sawston announcement first which will be good but do not read into that, that with some cash the need of a deal is allayed, because its actually irrelevant the deal is already done.
I was convinced of a Licensing deal but I now think its Buy Out.
Price
Using JUNO & KITE we`d expect $10bn for L, good will for D adds $3bn = $13pps
If we get bought at anything greater than half of that thank your lucky stars because there’s no doubt we were all but history on several occasions.
Do not kid yourself that any sale price below $20bn (PCYC etc) is an outrage, because you`re all amateurs and you will do as amateurs do, which is run losses and cut profits
You will take more money from this from what you may initially think is a cheap price for buyout than you ever would thinking you will hold it once it pops because you wont.
PLEASE NO REPLIES I DON’T CARE WHAT ANYONE THINKS, IM WRITING THIS TO SUPPORT THE GENUINE LONGS AND GENERALLY POSITIVE POSTERS.
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