Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

AMRN doesn't get the full price in revenue... it's something like $100 per monthly script, maybe a little more.

I have a company value projector that makes assumptions about rev growth, rev tail-off after 2030, equity discount rates, and share counts.

It values AMRN on a discounted cash flow basis, not on a P/E or multiple of sales basis, because currently AMRN has just one product. Its value is directly a function of the value of the cash flow stream on Vascepa.

Here's one example:

10.00% discount rate
65% net margin
25% taxes
370 millions of shares
1000 Start sales
6000 Max sales
50% ramp pace
15% post-2030 down pace
2% price inflation

$18,110.02 market cap
$48.95 stock price

year rev pre tax inc post tax inc
2019 1,000 650 488
2020 1,500 975 731
2021 2,250 1,463 1,097
2022 3,375 2,194 1,645
2023 5,063 3,291 2,468
2024 6,624 4,306 3,229
2025 6,757 4,392 3,294
2026 6,892 4,480 3,360
2027 7,030 4,569 3,427
2028 7,171 4,661 3,496
2029 7,314 4,754 3,566
2030 7,460 4,849 3,637
2031 6,341 4,122 3,091
2032 5,390 3,504 2,628
2033 4,582 2,978 2,233
2034 3,894 2,531 1,898
2035 3,310 2,152 1,614
2036 2,814 1,829 1,372
2037 2,392 1,555 1,166

totals 91,158 59,253 44,440