The possibility of $5 on Monday was raised, but few supported that possibility. I certainly do not. I would however like to remind people of what happened back in 1998 when a New York Times article about Dr. Judah Folkman catapulted a company trading for a dollar to over $100 on the strength of curing mice with angiogenesis. Over time the company, Entremed as I remember it fell back to earth. In looking into writing this I learned that angiogenesis has become part of some very effective drugs by other companies, and ENMD is still in business, but changed to CASI which currently trades at $4.10, I don't know if has had splits or reverse splits since those days, if someone's interested they can research it.
My point is that anything is possible, if Dr. Liau made the front page of the New York Times, or a major news presentation on one or more of the networks, the demand for NWBO stock could drive the price to practically anything. Should this occur, I would recommend that investors here today ask the question as to what the stock should reasonably be worth at this time. My answer without the unblinding of the Phase 3 trial data or any other news on other drugs would probably be somewhere between $.5 and $1 billion. If you put the O/S at half a billion, that equates to $1 to $2, but if you allow for all the other warrants etc that are known to be outstanding, it's roughly half those numbers.
So what do investors do. Personally I've been holding things long term and not selling, but if I believe we're reaching what I'll call emotional highs, like $5 or more, even though my shares are still short term holdings, I would probably put in some stop loss orders close to the share price as it rises. While I believe there is no limit as to how high NWBO could go with success with its drugs, especially if its technology is proven to work with multiple cancers, it's premature for it to have a multi billion dollar market cap before at least the top line Phase 3 results are seen. If it goes significantly over a $1 market cap on whatever news occurs Monday, I would think about setting some stop losses, or perhaps just selling part of my holdings with the anticipation of buying them back, and perhaps more, with the proceeds of the sale.
Frankly, it's now been 20 years since an article on curing mice sent a company through the roof, and if anything, we've gone to the other extreme where an article on curing cancer hardly budges stock prices, but there is no telling what new articles or network exposure might do. Dr. Folkman was ultimately successful with some of his ideas, but I don't believe it happened for ENMD, who he was working with when the article came out. I believe the NWBO and Dr. Liau will be very successful, but only time will tell whether NWBO remains independent, or not.
Gary
AI
