The same, worse, better, and outlook with ZN
Since I invested in 2008, what is the same, worse, and better with ZN? What is the outlook? All IMHO.
Same
1. ZN is still searching, drilling, and testing wells. This is a sincere effort with amazing staying power in the face of so many obstacles. I've never seen a scam where the company put so much $$$, time, and effort into finding hydrocarbons. Scams look for reasons to stop work after money is collected. ZN looks for grace to continue working even before the money is there.
2. Those that bless Israel will be blessed. Helping Israel with energy independence blesses Israel.
3. Job was sustained with oil from the rock; so will I.
4. Visionary leadership from John Brown.
Worse
1. A dry hole or two. Always disappointing, increases risk, pushes return out into the future.
2. MJ#1 Triassic not commercial. Bigger disappointment than the earlier dry holes. Givot Olam had moderate success in the Triassic 20 miles away in the Meged field.
3. Staff turnover.
4. Reality setting in of how difficult it is to wildcat in Israel.
5. Increased attacks such as lawsuits.
6. Seemingly endless time line....................
Better
1. Balance between being guided by science as well as by faith. Therefore current license area has more geological promise.
2. Refined staff with ability to find hydrocarbons and scale up operations.
3. Track record of being sustained by grace. This will lead to overcoming the attacks, solving the exploration problems, and eventual success.
4. Relationship with Energy Ministry having navigated the permit maze and demonstrated progress.
5. Active petro system successfully drilled with all key ingredients (source, migration path, reservoir, and cap)
6. Testing of active petro system in very promising Jurassic where offshore Israel has massive gas and other middle east countries have world-class oil.
7. Committed investor base. Some have left due to personal reasons and that is ok; no condemnation. Others have stayed the course for almost two decades and many others are coming onboard. As a group, the sense is that the investors are strengthening. How else could $5 million have been raised to finish testing after the Triassic was dry?
Outlook
1. MJ#1 may or may not have commercial hydrocarbons. Test results are pending. Based on available data, probabilities are high that MJ#1 is commercial in the Jurassic and perhaps even the Cretaceous. If commercial, the MJ#1 reservoir might be just enough to sustain ZN operations, but it could be a world-class find. If not commercial, MJ#1 will have been a valuable geological learning vehicle. It is afterall an exploration well.
2. ZN will eventually be successful with commercial hydrocarbons in Israel. They have been at it too long and overcome too many obstacles to quit or be defeated.
3. A nice pop up in the share price when MJ#1 results are announced is expected and would be very much appreciated.
4. Even beyond the initial price action with a commercial find, the ride over next decade or more will be where the major returns are as the field is discovered and brought online. In other words, when looking at the ZN price chart 10 or 20 years from now, the jump up in price when commercial hydros are announced will look like a small blip due to the long term exponential rise.
