First, why do we keep doing this...no one really knows, do they? I’m going to indulge as well ‘cuz why not and we only have a couple days left’ but no one knows where this will end. My answers below depict that the question has created two alternate universes...an EOY scenario with both a “so so” and “great” reality. I’m not trying to be obnoxious...just explaining my answers.
Now for my diatribe: We (the longs) made a bet that had what appeared to be minimal or relatively little downside but huge upside. Check mark for the longs...
Other than the fact that we know the top-line and there is an ‘experienced’ market (emphasis on the quotes), this would be relatively defined as a ‘unknown and unknowable’ scenario by Richard Zeckhauser. To provide some attempt to normalize our current situation, the “so so” scenario is what is expected by historical comparison and accepted as probable or tolerable risk levels by 99ish% of the universe. The “great” is the paradigm shift that no one other than David Ricardo or Nathan Rothschild (or our own JL) would have recognized as an asymmetrical bet. We either thought the risk reward payoff was obscenely attractive and/or we had information that others didn’t yet recognize.
Once word gets out about the results of Waterloo...how does the market react? To borrow from Tasty...a good secondary investment might be in Kimberly Clark for the increased demand in “Depends”.
Despite the obvious hyperbole, the unknowns are still unknown by the market and us. I personally can’t completely discount the risks. Others won’t either and it may suppress the price...certainly over the 7 weeks of this hypothetical thought exercise.
Now that I have attempted to pretend to portray I know some obscure crap about nothing (and I’m guessing I lost most people at Richard Z), for those that got this far; just let my creative liberties be...my work is fiction.
25 - 11/9
20 - 11/12 - so so definition - interpretation on my part...min SE SS: meaning not mambo #5, or #4 or...(but I’m with you Tasty. I got my Depends earlier tonight but explaining my definition for this hypothetical exercise)
65 - 11/12 great...mambo #5 scenario
80 - EOY (assumes we get great results on 11/10...if “so so” then languish around 20-30 but don’t think that’s likely)
