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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 27, 2018

Analysis for the Week of October 29, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 26, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closing today of 265869 immediately is trading down about 0.55% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 7 days, while we have made a low at 262816 following the high established Wed. Oct. 17, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 269238 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2019. At this time, the market is trading below last year's close of 267361 which is bearish. Furthermore, the market is trading below our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year 1793518, which is negative. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 142618 which is 46% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 67 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 44 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Considering our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 327104 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 261078. This provides a 20% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 319947 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 268235. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 16%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 265869, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 18% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come February 2019 in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 294091 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 286412 closing yesterday at 265869. We now need to close beneath 286412 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now. Since we are trading below that level, caution is advisable.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 281346. To date, this decline has been down forseven daily sessions.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 17th at 294091, which was up 32 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high on the Pi cycle. We have been generally trading down for the past 5 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1063%.

Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of September 17th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 279147 made back during the week of June 11th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of March 12th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 253269 made the week of February 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-3585 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 3590 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 294091, which was created during the week of September 17th. The previous weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 285062 above the market.

On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 279634 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 294091, which was created during September. However, we still remain below key resistance 274224 on a closing basis.

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