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S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 20, 2018

Analysis for the Week of October 22, 2018

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Oct. 19, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 276778 and is trading up about 3.52% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Oct. 18, 2018, but the key low was made 6 days ago on Thu. Oct. 11, 2018 at 271051. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2019. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 267361 which is bullish. Furthermore, the market is trading below our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year 1793518, which is negative. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 142618 which is 48% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 67 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 44 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 277410 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 270190. This provides a 2.60% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 319947 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 268235. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 16%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 276778, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.

A possible change in trend appears due come February 2019 in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 294091 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 286412 closing yesterday at 276778. We now need to close beneath 286412 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now. Since we are trading below that level, caution is advisable.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 274903.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 17th at 294091, which was up 32 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high on the Pi cycle. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of October 8th, which has been a move of.0367%. On the other hand, we have elected one Weekly buy signal to date.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 3 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 294091, which was created during the week of September 17th. The previous weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 271051 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 285062 above the market.

Critical support still underlies this market at 268235 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 279634 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 294091, which was created during September.

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