Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[hamkypamky]

but lets say those chances in the markets eyes have gone from 98% fail to 50% something is wrong with the study

That is the real issue isn't it?

Nobody knows what kind of odds the market is placing for sure on Amarin's presentation on the AHA.

You say it's 50/50, which may be true, but conversely it could also be argued that it could be 70/30 in favor of good results, which would change your price target completely.

Pre-Sept 24, there definitely was more of a bearish sentiment with this stock, whether from a quick glance of news articles, or from TA perspective.

Pre-Nov, however, it's much less certain. There are the oddball pessimists like Pyrrhonian still around, yes, but I haven't seen too many doom and gloom predictions for the AHA presentation.

My feel is there may be a small pop, but future price of this stock is more tied up in profitability (not potential) and execution, which means strap yourselves in for a longer term investment (buyout notwithstanding).