NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | October 20, 2018
Analysis for the Week of October 22, 2018
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Oct. 19, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 146500 immediately is trading down about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Oct. 18, 2018, but the key low was made 7 days ago on Wed. Oct. 10, 2018 at 142550. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we have been declining in this market since the last high was made 10/1 at 143950 for the past 2 weeks.
From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2019. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 171450 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2019 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2020 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2019. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 309760. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 141540.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 7.56% which has been a moderate rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 136200.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 249128 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 148760 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 144400. This provides a 2.93% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177760 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 143200. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 19%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 146500, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 1.51% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come December in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September 2017. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 139650 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 162600 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of September 10th at 139650, which was down 21 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 2 weeks, which has been a moderate move of .0321% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of October 1st reaching 149500 failed to exceed the previous high of 173500 made back during the week of June 11th. That rally amounted to onlythree typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 141950. Additional support is to be found at 139650. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2884 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2886 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 149500, which was created during the week of October 1st. The previous weekly level low was 139650, which formed during the week of September 10th, and only a break of 142550 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 139650 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 143200 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-651 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 663 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The previous monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and has now been broken in the recent decline. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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