Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 20, 2018

Analysis for the Week of October 22, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 19, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 122870 immediately is trading down about 6.15% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Oct. 18, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we were declining in this market from the previous high was made the week of December 30th for the past 3 weeks with a retest of of the upside the week of October 15th testing resistance at 123690.

Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. However, we also have a directional change due in 2019, which means we should keep an eye on that target ahead. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 130930 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2022 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2021. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 143260. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 113030.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 17% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 123540 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 121060. This provides a 2.00% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 132640 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.95%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 122870, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month but closed on the weak side. At this time, we have exceeded last month's high and we are trading above it on a closing basis. We must close this month above 121800 to suggest any further upside potential. We now need to close above 126690 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 123590. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 122630.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 15th at 123690, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 13th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 123690 to 122040. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 15th reaching 123690 has exceeded the previous high of 121800 made back during the week of September 10th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.

For now, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 9 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 118600 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 123690, which was created during the week of October 15th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 116270, which formed during August, and only a break of 116270 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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