![](http://investorshub.advfn.com/images/default_ih_profile2_4848.jpg?cb=0)
Monday, October 08, 2018 10:10:51 PM
Amarin – Net Present Value
Assumptions:
Current Cost of Goods (COGS) will remain stable; they will rise in price directly with the inflation rate. (This assumption is a worst case scenario; with economies of scale COGS could actually drop. (COGs are currently 25% of revenue – generating 75% gross margins – all of which is being eaten by Admin, Sales, Research, and Development.)
Inflation from 2019 – 2030 will be offset – any increases in COGS / Admin and sales will be covered by corresponding increases in revenue through increased prices for Vascepa.
Amarin will remain the sole licensed vendor of Vascepa in the U.S. until August 2029 (TEVA agreement) and Amarin will maintain patent protection in similar to U.S– sized markets, globally until 2030.
U.S. corporate tax rates will remain unchanged.
AstraZeneca’s Epanova will not have RRR as high as Vascepa and the gastro-intestinal side-effects – mainly diarrhea – will make Vascepa the standard of care for statin-add on care.
Vascepa will have 7-8 years (from 2022-2029) of peak sales after three year ramp up.
25% of 38 million statin-treated people have TG greater than 150. (Market of 9.5 million people in U.S. if Vascepa approved only as a statin add on by FDA.)
Best case scenario: Vascepa is approved for additional 50-70 million people in U.S. with high TG, as a method of CV treatment, regardless of stain add-on. (This scenario would likely occur only if exceptional hard MACE RRR announced at AHA.)
Best case scenario: Vascepa has a global market similar in size to the U.S. market.
Share count will be 370 million.
The range of scenarios:
Doomsday scenario: Amarin has 6 million patients (1/3 of possible statin add on market, U.S. and another 3 million abroad) and generates only 10% net profit (i.e. selling and admin continues to take almost all of gross revenue.) In this scenario Amarin generates $1.44 billion in profit per annum for total net profit through 2029 of $11.52 billion. Net Present Value with float of 370 million shares - $31 dollars per share.
Poor case scenario: Amarin has same market share but reduces admin and sales to the point that net profit is 25% of sales – Net Present Value - $78 dollars per share.
Good scenario: Amarin gets 9 million patients U.S. and 9 million abroad – i.e. the entire statin treated population with high TG. At 10% net profit NPV is $93 per share.
Same scenario of 18 million patients but net profit of 25% - NPV is $233 per share.
Great scenario – same patient population but admin and sales reduced to a net 40% profit – NPV is $373 per share.
Amazing scenario – 50 million patients (half of total possible high TG patients – assuming Vascepa is granted status as a stand-alone treatment for non- statin treated people.) At a 25% net profit – NPV is $649 dollars per share.
Blow-out scenario – 50 million patients and 40% net profit – NPV is $1037 per share. Nearly $400 billion in profits (in current dollars).
So, whether you are just like us holding shares or a Pharma exec looking at acquiring Amarin - the value ranges from $31 per share at worst to over $1000 per share. In a "dream" scenario of 100 million patients, Vascepa could even generate $800 billion or $2000 a share.
I think that great results announced at AHA and we are in the good scenario or better - at least 5 times higher than current share price. Very worst, and we are up only 40-50% from here and I think that really is not that likely. If CANTOR and CITI have done any real analysis of the revenue stream this could generate, I don't understand how they have such conservative price targets of 60 and 50. I think 90-100 per share is a "conservative" PT!
Best regards,
Recent AMRN News
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/05/2024 09:30:03 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/01/2024 08:54:53 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/01/2024 08:54:46 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/31/2024 11:05:34 AM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/31/2024 11:05:26 AM
- Amarin Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Provides Business Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/31/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/29/2024 09:30:08 PM
- Amarin Receives National Reimbursement for VAZKEPA® (icosapent ethyl) in Portugal • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/17/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Amarin to Report Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Host Conference Call on July 31, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/17/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Amarin Partner EddingPharm Receives Regulatory Approval for VASCEPA® (Icosapent Ethyl) in Mainland China for Cardiovascular Risk Reduction (CVRR) • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/08/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/04/2024 11:30:10 AM
- Amarin Board of Directors Announces CEO Transition • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 06/04/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Amarin Receives National Reimbursement for VAZKEPA® (icosapent ethyl) in Greece and Announces Exclusive Marketing and Commercialization Agreement with Vianex S.A. • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/28/2024 12:15:23 PM
- Amarin to Present at H.C. Wainwright 2nd Annual BioConnect Investor Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/06/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Amarin Reports First Quarter 2024 Business Update and Financial Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/01/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Amarin Applauds HealthyWomen’s Citizen’s Petition Urging FDA To Take Further Action On Fenofibrate Prescribing in Patients at Risk of Cardiovascular Event • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/24/2024 06:00:01 PM
- Amarin Announces Results of Annual General Meeting of Shareholders • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/22/2024 12:00:25 PM
- Amarin to Report First Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Host Conference Call on May 1, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/15/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Amarin Highlights Key Data Providing Mechanistic Insights into Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA) at ACC.24 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/08/2024 12:00:00 PM
- New REDUCE-IT® Analyses Show VASCEPA® (Icosapent Ethyl) Benefit in High-Risk Cardiovascular Disease Patient Subgroups • PR Newswire (Canada) • 04/08/2024 10:30:00 AM
- New REDUCE-IT® Analyses Show VASCEPA®/VAZKEPA® (Icosapent Ethyl) Benefit in High-Risk Cardiovascular Disease Patient Subgroups • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/06/2024 07:30:00 PM
- Amarin Provides Update on VAZKEPA® (Icosapent Ethyl) Intellectual Property Portfolio in Europe • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/03/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Research Evaluating Benefits of VASCEPA®/VAZKEPA® (icosapent ethyl) to be Presented at the American College of Cardiology’s (ACC) Annual Scientific Session & Expo • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/25/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form ARS - Annual Report to Security Holders • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/04/2024 10:30:53 PM
- Form DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/04/2024 01:00:24 PM
HealthLynked Corp. Announces Second Quarter and First Half 2024 Results: Continued Cost Reductions Set the Stage for Strategic Shift to App-Based Technology Services • HLYK • Aug 16, 2024 8:00 AM
PickleJar Announces Official Name Change and New Ticker Symbol • NREG • Aug 15, 2024 2:23 PM
VAYK's Q2 Profit Added to Accumulated Net Profit of Over $2.2 Million In 18 Months • VAYK • Aug 15, 2024 9:07 AM
Swifty Global Reports Strong Q2 Performance and Prepares for Major Exchange Uplisting • DRCR • Aug 15, 2024 9:04 AM
Mayback's Global Entertainment Signs Global Distribution Agreement with Children's Media Studio • AHRO • Aug 15, 2024 8:45 AM
POET Technologies Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results • POET • Aug 15, 2024 8:04 AM