The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Re: CLB’s 3.4% drop on 10/4/18 after issuing 8-K info in #msg-143984937

These passages from the 10/4/18 SEC filing are more bearish than CLB’s prior guidance (e.g. from PR in #msg-142461650):

…sell-side analysts have begun adjusting operational and EPS expectations for Oilfield Service companies who are tied to North America completion activity. As a result, Core’s Q4 consensus expectations should be aligned to other Oilfield Service companies tied to North America completion activity declines, which would reflect downward adjustments from Q3 expected results.

This is the first indication from CLB that 4Q18 will likely be weaker than 3Q18. More from the same 8-K filing:

…In 2017 there were approximately 20 Final Investment Decisions (“FIDs”) announced and so far in 2018 there have been 18 of an anticipated 25 to 30 projects announced, which is in line with Core’s expectations. For clarification, there are two different items at play - the number of FIDs being announced and the pace of the project’s progression post announcement. The rate at which projects’ final investment decisions are being approved is consistent with Core Lab’s expectations. However, the pace at which these projects are progressing, after approval, has been somewhat slower than anticipated and our historical experience.

…Core’s revenue opportunity has historically occurred three-to-four quarters after the FID has been announced; however, that timeline has shifted to four-to-five quarters post [FID] announcement.