GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 6, 2018

Analysis for the Week of October 8, 2018

THE ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 5, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 120560 immediately is trading down about 7.92% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, but this has been an inside trading session warning caution (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of September 10th at 121800 for 2 weeks. We have been consolidating since the week of September 24th.

Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. However, we also have a directional change due in 2019, which means we should keep an eye on that target ahead. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 130930 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2022 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2021. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 143260. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 113030.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 15% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 121050 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 118480. This provides a 2.12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 132640 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.95%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 120560, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month but closed on the weak side. Respectfully, we are still trading neutral within last month's trading range of 121800 to 118430. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 121230. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both neutral reflecting resistance forming at 119220.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 13th at 116270, which was down 18 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of September 24th, which has been a move of.0231%. On the other hand, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 2 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 121800, which was created during the week of September 10th. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 118430 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 118490 on a closing basis.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 116270, which formed during August, and only a break of 116270 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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