The Science Notwithstanding; Only Trials Data Will Control
Nice little share price bounce today. Volume will be around 3x recent.
But none of what we watch and have seen here (CTAD, other presentation announcement, etc.) will much change the general market’s perception (or knowledge) of Anavex Life Sciences Corp. Yes, the science is ever stronger, with no plausible or evidence-based refutations. Multiple sclerosis now ever more in play. An understanding of cellular chemistry and physiology reveals that the Anavex sigma-1 receptor agonists promote healthful outcomes for a multitude central nervous system diseases and conditions; and others. Simply put, Anavex 2-73's therapeutic applications will be diverse and profound.
But the fact remains—the Anavex share price does not appreciate much with even announcements of good science. The market, in fact, cares not a whit about the science. Equity share prices of biotechs are not based at all on the validity of underlying science. Only one thing counts: can the company reap profits from its technologies? The market is not dumb. Revenues can’t accrue until regulatory approval for drug sales is attained; as with the FDA in the US, and similar regulatory agencies in other jurisdictions.
And no approvals will occur until positive clinical results appear, either during a trial (numerous anecdotal leakages), or with formal end-of-trial results. Until either of those, I’m not expecting the AVXL share price to attain any generalized recognition. In a few months, it could double, perhaps. But the revenue potentials for approved sales of Anavex 2-73 will put the eventual share price into triple digits.
Until human trials results appear, the AVXL share price will be but a temporal curiosity. But in time, the profound science will prevail. “Anavex” will be heard in general conversations. Waiting patiently for all of that.
