I believe Wild Horse-1 is going to be spudded asap. They want it done before winter. They want the winter to be able to go to Shell and others and see who is willing to pay the most to farm in, in the event of an oil strike at Wild Horse-1.
Shell are in lead position (we know they cut Mongolia after they purchased BG, simply as they are not interested in Wild Cat wells in a new country, they are very interested in Oil discoveries in a new country - hence they told MATD they want to see Wild Horse 1 drilled and are willing to farm in and pay a lot more money AFTER a discovery). I say they are in lead position as they left in the contract that MATD have to pay Shell 5m US$ if they farm out Blocks IV/V to anyone other than Shell in future.
If, and its an big if, but if they strike oil at Wild Horse-1 then they have the winter to do a farm in deal with Shell or another.
Interestingly, if you look at the confidence levels "internally"......... Snow Leopard was never planned in advance for appraisal. Wild Horse-2, an appraisal well for Wild Horse, is already planned and permitted. So why are they planning ahead already to appraise Wild Horse...........they must have high confidence. I imagine the internal CoS for Wild Horse-1 is much higher than the advertised CoS.
Also the rig will be winterised and left over winter at Wild Horse location......... this means if they strike oil at WH-1 they can in effect, if they want, delay Block XX drilling even more and do a straight appraisal with Wild Horse-2 in April......as its already permitted. They can then move to Fox-1 to drill that after WH-2.
And if Wild Horse-1 strikes oil I imagine that is what they will tell Shell and others........... Do you want to farm in now for XXX million, or you want us to appraise Wild Horse and drill Fox-1 and you farm in for XXXX million later.
This is what makes MATD so very interesting over the winter if they strike at Wild Horse-1. A strike at Wild Horse-1 is going to rocket the price for sure..... 480MMBO recoverable and then other prospects derisked for 750MMBO recoverable - all 100% owned. But those who then sell the initial stike will perhaps miss the potential bigger rise, which will be when/if a Super Major farms in over winter.......... A farm in over winter and new funds and free carries could see a number of wells sunk into Blocks IV and V, so the farm in potential company will not want to wait for MATD to appraise and discover more oil and also will not want to waste time in the 2019 drilling season, so the potential for a winter period farm in is high.............IF they strike oil at Wild Horse-1.
All very interesting.
